The first and simplest emotion which we discover in the human mind, is curiosity.
- Edmund Burke -
Matching Your Mood to the Mood of the Market
It is Tuesday morning. Tommy woke up early and had a good run. He drank four cups of coffee before the open to get psyched up. He is energized and ready to trade the markets. He looks forward to a winning day. But how will he do? At first glance, one might think that Tommy has a winning mental edge today. There's no one single, proper way to trade, however. What's a good day for some people may not be a good day for others. Take Tommy, for example. When he is in a great mood, he is a little overconfident. He can't wait to get started, and in his zeal, he may take trades he should have stayed away from. Today the markets are generally bullish. (As you may recall, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 were all up last Tuesday.) But what will happen in the long run? Will the market optimism last, or is Tommy jumping in too soon? He may have bought stocks at a top, and when he tries to sell off his positions in a few days, he may not find enough buyers. On this particular day, Tommy may allow his optimistic mood to get the better of him. Today is a day when Tommy would be wise to trade with caution or just stand aside.
When trading the markets, it's vital to have a good match between your personal mood, your trading style, and the mood of the markets. Again, there is no one right way to trade. It's a matter of personal preference, but a critical issue is whether your current mood matches the market mood. People differ in the kinds of personal moods that are optimal for trading. Ideally, you want to trade in the zone. You want to be alert, focused, and ready for the challenge the markets place before you. Obviously, if you are extremely tired or depressed, you will not be alert. You'll be easily distracted and annoyed by minor setbacks. So being rested, relaxed and ready for the action is essential for profitable trading. But how alert do you need to be? Many profitable traders, for example, develop detailed trading plans during off hours and merely execute (rather then re-think) their plans during the trading day. Some trading experts argue that one doesn't want to be too alert. They argue that if you are too mentally active, you may unnecessarily question your trading plan rather than flawlessly execute it. The ideal approach is to merely follow your plan and execute it without much thought, sort of how an assembly line worker might methodically get the job done. A sense of alert indifference is the preferred mode of thinking for some traders. While in this indifferent state of mind, everything just seems to click and they enjoy themselves. Other traders, in contrast, feel they need to be extremely energized while trading. They need energy in order to seek out trading opportunities during the trading day. They need a vast supply of energy to scan through charts, to discover what is happening, and to take action. Whatever mood you trade in, however, it must suit your trading style. Some people can't trade in a bearish market no matter what their mood. That's all right. Again, there is no one right to trade. Some people like bull markets while others like bear markets. The main thing you need to do is trade in the market mood you prefer and make sure that your personal mood is conducive to your style of trading. The better the match between your personal mood and the current market mood, the more profitable you will trade.
Helpful Links
December 20, 2007
December 16, 2007
Swing Trading Questions and Answers
SWING TRADING TIPS FOR BEGINNERS
So you want to be a swing trader. Get in line, because a lot of other folks have exactly the same idea. In fact, thousands of new traders try their hand at the market casino each year. Unfortunately, most walk away a little poorer and a lot wiser. But things could turn out better for you if you get it right from the get-go.
I've complied a list of the best questions submitted to me by new traders. I hope my answers will shorten your learning curve and get you on the road to profitability as quickly as possible. But good advice goes only so far when it comes to trading longevity. So slow down, take your time and make this intense discipline a lifelong quest.
Q - My goal is to trade for a living, and I'll soon have the money needed for my account. I spent the last 13 months just watching the markets, paper trading and gaining the experience needed to avoid beginner's drawdown. What else can I do?
A - Pre-trading preparation takes you only so far, because there's a degree of risk-avoidance in the process. Paper trading lets you game and consider all the angles without actually losing money. But realize you will draw down, and you will lose money with real trades. You need to get used to that idea right now.
The problem is there's a lot about trading you won't understand until you place yourself at risk. So you have no choice but to jump in and learn the hard way. In fact, it's the nature of risk that determines your ultimate success or failure in the markets. I always recommend that new traders expose themselves to real losses as soon as possible, so they can get past the book learning of technical analysis and Trading 101-type lessons.
You'll find your losses have a much greater impact on your thinking and strategic planning than you can imagine or believe right now. In fact, they'll make you tone deaf and give you 10 thumbs. The trick is to survive long enough to wrestle that beast to the ground.
Q - What is a good average return for swing trading? What percentage of my portfolio should I put to work on any trade?
A - No two traders are alike, nor do they approach the markets in the same way. Some folks do this part time and risk very small percentages of capital. Others do it full time and place a high percentage of equity at risk in each trade. Some have $5,000 discount brokerage accounts, while others manage large hedge funds.
Swing trading isn't an exact science or a system. It's a way to get an edge so you can profit from trades. Every swing trader chooses to enter and exit the market in a slightly different way. So the average returns are all over the map, from those who double their money every six months to those who can't beat the interest rates in their checking accounts.
Q - Do you recommend a 1% or 2% limit on capital risked per swing trade? Is 5% too aggressive?
A - If you're an experienced and profitable trader, using a percentage of capital is a good way to manage risk. But if you're a new, semi-new or struggling trader, this isn't the best way to approach position sizing. Each trade setup has a size that's right for your risk tolerance. This is independent of your account size. Newer traders routinely take positions that are too large for their risk or knowledge level. In fact, their overall performance suffers when they take larger trades, because (a) they get so jumpy that good trades are exited too soon, or (b) they hold positions too long because they panic watching the wider swings and get the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome.
Q - Is it realistic for a new trader to grow an account by 5% to 10% a month?
A - Returns of 5% to 10% a month are completely unrealistic for new traders. The question actually reflects a larger issue. New traders need to focus on the dynamics that generate price movement and not worry about making money. These processes take a very long time to understand. Trying to make money interferes with trading education, because it creates all types of performance anxiety issues. Learn to trade well, and the money will eventually follow.
Q - How would you recommend trading an account size of $150,000?
A -You don't need all that money in your account to trade. In fact, it's more of a liability than a benefit for a new trader. You probably don't need any more than $35,000 maximum at your stage of development. All the extra money will do is demand you trade it and raise your risk above an acceptable level. As for how you allocate the money in your account, the answer right now should be "mostly cash."
Q - Could you comment on what to look for on the ticker tape when taking a long or short position?
A - The bottom line is you're looking for convergence. Each trade strategy has unique characteristics that identify it on the price chart. The ticker tape adds another type of signature, and what you see should match the chart most of the time. In narrow range situations, there's really nothing to look at, because you're entering a dead market. In pullbacks, look for panic or overexcitement and a thin bid-ask. In breakouts or breakdowns, the tape should print lots and lots of volume, with price pulling away from support or resistance in a hurry.
Q - How can I interpret the changing spreads I'm watching on Nasdaq Level II? How can understanding this tool help my trading?
A - I don't believe you can predict direction from Level II quotes (these show you all bid/ask spreads from market makers, not just the narrowest). The best thing you can do is to predict interest and liquidity. Different stocks have different personalities on the tape. Some stocks trade very wide price ranges for their float. The spread changes during different times of the year, as average volume fluctuates. Realize you're not seeing true supply and demand on Level II. Most exchanges and ECNs have ways to hide order size, so you're actually seeing a lie. The best way to use Level II is to trade against its directional movement, as long as it's approaching a key level on your setup chart.
Q - I want to be a full-time trader. I understand it's feasible to make $500 to $1,000 a week for every $10,000 in the trading account. Is this accurate?
A - This is a very unrealistic and dangerous assumption. If you can make a 100% return on your capital in a year, you will be in a very elite group indeed. Sure, you can make $1,000 in a week on a $10,000 account, but at that risk level you'll wash out of the market quickly because of bad or unexpected losses.
New traders should start with very small positions and continue to trade small until they put together a decent track record. Then they should increase risk and exposure until their stomachs tell them they're trading too big. Don't worry about making money for a long time. Instead, worry about trading well. The biggest problem new traders face is the urge to trade. They jump in too quickly and get crushed.
Thousands of other traders out there have been doing this for years. These folks like to feed on new traders and their naiveté. Your job is to survive until you can become one of them. Their level of dedication is almost fanatical. Many pros spend more than 70 hours a week involved in the markets, one way or the other.
Q - How can I tell if I'm suited to a career in trading?
A - To begin with, you have to be very talented and motivated. You also need to realize the goal is as tough as graduating from an elite school with a degree in hand. No one is printing money, and all the technical analysis in the world is just an introduction to real-life trading. You'll lose a lot of money before you learn to trade profitably. That's just the way it is. Most folks underestimate their reaction to losses until they're faced with big positions moving against them. This emotional hurdle is often the most difficult obstacle to a successful career in trading.
Q - You said "newer traders suffer with larger positions because (a) they get so jumpy that good trades are exited too soon, or (b) they hold positions too long because they panic and get deer-in-the-headlights syndrome." Can you elaborate?
A - New traders don't really understand why stocks go up or down, so it's hard to make good decisions when their positions move against them. Of course, they're taught all kinds of risk-control methods, but that goes out the window as soon as they watch red ink growing in their equity curve. This confusion is reinforced over time, because they stop out of many positions just as they reverse. A tendency builds up to let price move past their stops. The end result is a lot more confusion and even bigger losses.
Q - Should new traders paper trade first?
A - Paper trading is a good idea for beginners, but it has a built-in flaw. Real-life trading is far more complicated and stokes the emotional fires. Paper trading naturally gives you the best prices and the cleanest profits. The markets give you the exact opposite most of the time.
Q - I'm a new trader and am having trouble using trailing stops. Can you help me?
A - I think using trailing stops is an advanced trading skill. New traders may be better off taking single direct moves, building up their equity, and dealing with trailing stops at a later date. Try to get one thing right when you start out, and take your profits quickly. Then worry about making more money as you gain experience.
Q - How much time should a new trader spend looking at a chart? I believe you said if you have to look too hard, it isn't there.
A - I can spend less than a second looking at a chart for a trading opportunity. If I see something, the rest of the analysis takes only a minute or two longer. But newer traders shouldn't expect this kind of speed for many years. It is true that a good setup will engage both sides of your brain and elicit an emotional response immediately. That either happens very quickly or it doesn't happen at all.
Q - Is the holding period flexible once I choose one for my swing trades?
A - Don't let a holding period be a noose around your neck, but realize the market is a 3-D chessboard. It's best to pick one holding period and learn to play it well before moving on to another.
Here's the problem: You adjust your time frame in midstream. It pays off. The next trade comes along, and you're now conditioned to change the holding period if things don't work out, so you start losing money and don't take your loss. Now you're in a lot of trouble.
Q - Would you define sector rotation and how it impacts the daily trading environment?
A - Money chases opportunity in the markets. But there's only so much money to go around. Broad trading strategies take money out of sectors that reach price targets or achieve goals, and put it in new sectors as they come into vogue. Sometimes this is based on valuation; other times it's based on the technicals. In fact, there are as many reasons for sector rotation as there are institutions and traders. Again, "rotation" means money is being removed from one area of the market and placed into another.
Intraday leadership influences how sector rotation impacts the trading environment. The market searches for leadership each morning and can latch onto a variety of internal or external forces. Different sectors can rise to the surface at any time and become the leaders or laggards for that session. Quite often, market leadership affects sectors indirectly. Different types of leadership tell traders and institutions what's hot that day, and what's not.
Q - What type of stop would you use when shorting a stock?
A - Don't differentiate between long and short positions when considering stops. Exit the position at the price where your reason for being in the trade has changed or been proven wrong. This "failure target" should be part of your initial trade analysis, based on support and resistance. Your stop-loss should then change as price action evolves. Keep a failure stop, a break-even stop and a profit-protection stop in mind, depending on how the market moves away from your entry. Personally, I don't like using either a flat stop-loss or a percentage stop-loss. There's no logic with either of them, as far as I'm concerned.
Q - How do you manage market sentiment?
A - I start with a bias and then let the market show me what it wants to do. If price action supports my bias, I get more aggressive. If it's opposing my bias, I slow down and reconsider my point of view. You have to be careful with knee-jerk reactions to external events, such as "the market will probably go down today due to the earnings warnings." You have to consider the time period, intraday reversals, triple-witching effects, oversold conditions, etc.
Other traders hope you confine your analysis to just "up" or "down" for the day without considering all the twists and turns. If your opinions are rigid, professionals will position themselves against you, because you're unprepared to deal with an adverse outcome. To avoid this fate, use a continuous feedback mechanism that lets you adjust your expectations as soon as market conditions change.
Q - You've written that it's impossible to make money using technical analysis. Isn't that what your column, book and seminars are all about?
A - There's an important distinction here. Swing trading and technical analysis are two different disciplines. Many folks are great at TA but terrible at trading. Everyone is an armchair technician, and this takes little effort or commitment. But putting your money on the line every day is another story entirely. I like to think I teach traders, not technicians.
So you want to be a swing trader. Get in line, because a lot of other folks have exactly the same idea. In fact, thousands of new traders try their hand at the market casino each year. Unfortunately, most walk away a little poorer and a lot wiser. But things could turn out better for you if you get it right from the get-go.
I've complied a list of the best questions submitted to me by new traders. I hope my answers will shorten your learning curve and get you on the road to profitability as quickly as possible. But good advice goes only so far when it comes to trading longevity. So slow down, take your time and make this intense discipline a lifelong quest.
Q - My goal is to trade for a living, and I'll soon have the money needed for my account. I spent the last 13 months just watching the markets, paper trading and gaining the experience needed to avoid beginner's drawdown. What else can I do?
A - Pre-trading preparation takes you only so far, because there's a degree of risk-avoidance in the process. Paper trading lets you game and consider all the angles without actually losing money. But realize you will draw down, and you will lose money with real trades. You need to get used to that idea right now.
The problem is there's a lot about trading you won't understand until you place yourself at risk. So you have no choice but to jump in and learn the hard way. In fact, it's the nature of risk that determines your ultimate success or failure in the markets. I always recommend that new traders expose themselves to real losses as soon as possible, so they can get past the book learning of technical analysis and Trading 101-type lessons.
You'll find your losses have a much greater impact on your thinking and strategic planning than you can imagine or believe right now. In fact, they'll make you tone deaf and give you 10 thumbs. The trick is to survive long enough to wrestle that beast to the ground.
Q - What is a good average return for swing trading? What percentage of my portfolio should I put to work on any trade?
A - No two traders are alike, nor do they approach the markets in the same way. Some folks do this part time and risk very small percentages of capital. Others do it full time and place a high percentage of equity at risk in each trade. Some have $5,000 discount brokerage accounts, while others manage large hedge funds.
Swing trading isn't an exact science or a system. It's a way to get an edge so you can profit from trades. Every swing trader chooses to enter and exit the market in a slightly different way. So the average returns are all over the map, from those who double their money every six months to those who can't beat the interest rates in their checking accounts.
Q - Do you recommend a 1% or 2% limit on capital risked per swing trade? Is 5% too aggressive?
A - If you're an experienced and profitable trader, using a percentage of capital is a good way to manage risk. But if you're a new, semi-new or struggling trader, this isn't the best way to approach position sizing. Each trade setup has a size that's right for your risk tolerance. This is independent of your account size. Newer traders routinely take positions that are too large for their risk or knowledge level. In fact, their overall performance suffers when they take larger trades, because (a) they get so jumpy that good trades are exited too soon, or (b) they hold positions too long because they panic watching the wider swings and get the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome.
Q - Is it realistic for a new trader to grow an account by 5% to 10% a month?
A - Returns of 5% to 10% a month are completely unrealistic for new traders. The question actually reflects a larger issue. New traders need to focus on the dynamics that generate price movement and not worry about making money. These processes take a very long time to understand. Trying to make money interferes with trading education, because it creates all types of performance anxiety issues. Learn to trade well, and the money will eventually follow.
Q - How would you recommend trading an account size of $150,000?
A -You don't need all that money in your account to trade. In fact, it's more of a liability than a benefit for a new trader. You probably don't need any more than $35,000 maximum at your stage of development. All the extra money will do is demand you trade it and raise your risk above an acceptable level. As for how you allocate the money in your account, the answer right now should be "mostly cash."
Q - Could you comment on what to look for on the ticker tape when taking a long or short position?
A - The bottom line is you're looking for convergence. Each trade strategy has unique characteristics that identify it on the price chart. The ticker tape adds another type of signature, and what you see should match the chart most of the time. In narrow range situations, there's really nothing to look at, because you're entering a dead market. In pullbacks, look for panic or overexcitement and a thin bid-ask. In breakouts or breakdowns, the tape should print lots and lots of volume, with price pulling away from support or resistance in a hurry.
Q - How can I interpret the changing spreads I'm watching on Nasdaq Level II? How can understanding this tool help my trading?
A - I don't believe you can predict direction from Level II quotes (these show you all bid/ask spreads from market makers, not just the narrowest). The best thing you can do is to predict interest and liquidity. Different stocks have different personalities on the tape. Some stocks trade very wide price ranges for their float. The spread changes during different times of the year, as average volume fluctuates. Realize you're not seeing true supply and demand on Level II. Most exchanges and ECNs have ways to hide order size, so you're actually seeing a lie. The best way to use Level II is to trade against its directional movement, as long as it's approaching a key level on your setup chart.
Q - I want to be a full-time trader. I understand it's feasible to make $500 to $1,000 a week for every $10,000 in the trading account. Is this accurate?
A - This is a very unrealistic and dangerous assumption. If you can make a 100% return on your capital in a year, you will be in a very elite group indeed. Sure, you can make $1,000 in a week on a $10,000 account, but at that risk level you'll wash out of the market quickly because of bad or unexpected losses.
New traders should start with very small positions and continue to trade small until they put together a decent track record. Then they should increase risk and exposure until their stomachs tell them they're trading too big. Don't worry about making money for a long time. Instead, worry about trading well. The biggest problem new traders face is the urge to trade. They jump in too quickly and get crushed.
Thousands of other traders out there have been doing this for years. These folks like to feed on new traders and their naiveté. Your job is to survive until you can become one of them. Their level of dedication is almost fanatical. Many pros spend more than 70 hours a week involved in the markets, one way or the other.
Q - How can I tell if I'm suited to a career in trading?
A - To begin with, you have to be very talented and motivated. You also need to realize the goal is as tough as graduating from an elite school with a degree in hand. No one is printing money, and all the technical analysis in the world is just an introduction to real-life trading. You'll lose a lot of money before you learn to trade profitably. That's just the way it is. Most folks underestimate their reaction to losses until they're faced with big positions moving against them. This emotional hurdle is often the most difficult obstacle to a successful career in trading.
Q - You said "newer traders suffer with larger positions because (a) they get so jumpy that good trades are exited too soon, or (b) they hold positions too long because they panic and get deer-in-the-headlights syndrome." Can you elaborate?
A - New traders don't really understand why stocks go up or down, so it's hard to make good decisions when their positions move against them. Of course, they're taught all kinds of risk-control methods, but that goes out the window as soon as they watch red ink growing in their equity curve. This confusion is reinforced over time, because they stop out of many positions just as they reverse. A tendency builds up to let price move past their stops. The end result is a lot more confusion and even bigger losses.
Q - Should new traders paper trade first?
A - Paper trading is a good idea for beginners, but it has a built-in flaw. Real-life trading is far more complicated and stokes the emotional fires. Paper trading naturally gives you the best prices and the cleanest profits. The markets give you the exact opposite most of the time.
Q - I'm a new trader and am having trouble using trailing stops. Can you help me?
A - I think using trailing stops is an advanced trading skill. New traders may be better off taking single direct moves, building up their equity, and dealing with trailing stops at a later date. Try to get one thing right when you start out, and take your profits quickly. Then worry about making more money as you gain experience.
Q - How much time should a new trader spend looking at a chart? I believe you said if you have to look too hard, it isn't there.
A - I can spend less than a second looking at a chart for a trading opportunity. If I see something, the rest of the analysis takes only a minute or two longer. But newer traders shouldn't expect this kind of speed for many years. It is true that a good setup will engage both sides of your brain and elicit an emotional response immediately. That either happens very quickly or it doesn't happen at all.
Q - Is the holding period flexible once I choose one for my swing trades?
A - Don't let a holding period be a noose around your neck, but realize the market is a 3-D chessboard. It's best to pick one holding period and learn to play it well before moving on to another.
Here's the problem: You adjust your time frame in midstream. It pays off. The next trade comes along, and you're now conditioned to change the holding period if things don't work out, so you start losing money and don't take your loss. Now you're in a lot of trouble.
Q - Would you define sector rotation and how it impacts the daily trading environment?
A - Money chases opportunity in the markets. But there's only so much money to go around. Broad trading strategies take money out of sectors that reach price targets or achieve goals, and put it in new sectors as they come into vogue. Sometimes this is based on valuation; other times it's based on the technicals. In fact, there are as many reasons for sector rotation as there are institutions and traders. Again, "rotation" means money is being removed from one area of the market and placed into another.
Intraday leadership influences how sector rotation impacts the trading environment. The market searches for leadership each morning and can latch onto a variety of internal or external forces. Different sectors can rise to the surface at any time and become the leaders or laggards for that session. Quite often, market leadership affects sectors indirectly. Different types of leadership tell traders and institutions what's hot that day, and what's not.
Q - What type of stop would you use when shorting a stock?
A - Don't differentiate between long and short positions when considering stops. Exit the position at the price where your reason for being in the trade has changed or been proven wrong. This "failure target" should be part of your initial trade analysis, based on support and resistance. Your stop-loss should then change as price action evolves. Keep a failure stop, a break-even stop and a profit-protection stop in mind, depending on how the market moves away from your entry. Personally, I don't like using either a flat stop-loss or a percentage stop-loss. There's no logic with either of them, as far as I'm concerned.
Q - How do you manage market sentiment?
A - I start with a bias and then let the market show me what it wants to do. If price action supports my bias, I get more aggressive. If it's opposing my bias, I slow down and reconsider my point of view. You have to be careful with knee-jerk reactions to external events, such as "the market will probably go down today due to the earnings warnings." You have to consider the time period, intraday reversals, triple-witching effects, oversold conditions, etc.
Other traders hope you confine your analysis to just "up" or "down" for the day without considering all the twists and turns. If your opinions are rigid, professionals will position themselves against you, because you're unprepared to deal with an adverse outcome. To avoid this fate, use a continuous feedback mechanism that lets you adjust your expectations as soon as market conditions change.
Q - You've written that it's impossible to make money using technical analysis. Isn't that what your column, book and seminars are all about?
A - There's an important distinction here. Swing trading and technical analysis are two different disciplines. Many folks are great at TA but terrible at trading. Everyone is an armchair technician, and this takes little effort or commitment. But putting your money on the line every day is another story entirely. I like to think I teach traders, not technicians.
December 12, 2007
Still Can't Seem To Win
Mind Over Markets
Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
- Thomas Edison -
Still Can't Seem To Win
There has been great interest in the markets lately, so there's no reason that you shouldn't take home huge profits, right? Although many traders profit, there are some who still can't seem to make a profit, even during relatively good times like these. Let's consider some of the psychological impediments that may limit success.
The most obvious reason for an inability to win is a lack of experience with the markets. Trading is a skill that cannot be mastered overnight. Sure, you can make a few winning trades, but taking out profits day in and day out takes experience and practice. Many novice traders suffer from the double-edged sword of incompetence. That is, they are incompetent but don't know it. The reason can be simple: They don't put in enough time and effort. Many traders think they have more skills than they actually do, and similarly, they falsely believe that they put in as much time and effort as everyone else, yet if they were to look at what a skilled winning trader actually does, they would find that winning traders put in at least twice as much effort as one would think. In addition, winning traders use their time wisely, and because they have more experience, they can read reports faster, know precisely where to look for information when evaluating their trading plan, and have a more astute perception of the market action. So if you are a novice trader and still can't seem to win, calm down, work extra hard and give it time. The more experience you have, the more likely you will be able to take profits out of the markets. A second reason that traders fail is that they set themselves up to fail. Some traders actually fear success. This is not true of all traders, though. In one of our Innerworth surveys of traders, we found that relatively few traders had a fear of success. For example, only 12% thought that if they made huge profits that others would try to take advantage of them, and similarly, only 10% indicated that they thought that if they were successful traders, their lives would change in adverse ways. That said, those who feared success tended to feel stressed by trading and generally felt disappointed and upset. Some people secretly believe that money is the root of all evil or that they are not deserving of making huge profits. If you secretly fear success, you will find that even during optimal market conditions, you will not feel good about winning and may unconsciously sabotage your efforts. Traders are also their own worst enemy when they trade when worn out and tired. Trading uses up limited psychological energy, even when you are winning. The emotional ups and downs can take a toll on your body and mind. It's vital to get plenty of rest while you are trading. Don't force yourself to trade like a robot or superhuman. You are not. You need rest, relaxation, and rejuvenation. When you are tired and hungry, you are bound to act on impulse while trading. It's an unnecessary way to make errors, however. All you need to do is get proper rest, so you might as well rest up when you need to. Many traders sabotage their own efforts either consciously or unconsciously. But most of the time, you can gain awareness, overcome psychological obstacles and trade with a mental edge. It just takes commitment, planning, and effort.
Probability - do you have the stomach for it?
Probability - do you have the stomach for it? by Alan Hull
Share Trading is all about having the balance of probability on your side. In fact to succeed in the marketplace we only have to tip the scale of probability ever so slightly in our favour. This is evidenced by the fact that Casinos only have a tiny edge over the players of a mere 2% at the roulette table. This seemingly insignificant advantage is then compounded over a massive number of spins to create profits of mouth watering proportions. To give you some idea of the size of these profits; most Casinos have to count their money by weighing it.
But while most of us have a clear understanding of the science of probability, not all of us have the stomach for it. To illustrate my point let's consider the simple game of coin toss where the payouts are even, making it a fair game of chance. Everyone agrees that when tossing a coin, the probable outcome is evenly split between heads and tails, ie. the chances of heads occurring is 50% and the chances of tails occurring is 50%. The results of 100 consecutive coin tosses is shown in the following chart of 'Balance of outcomes'.
Now, whilst the probable outcome of tossing a coin is an even split between heads and tails, it doesn't mean that the outcome will oscillate perfectly between heads and tails in a flip/flop head, tail, head, tail, head, tail pattern. However, it does mean that the balance of outcomes will always return to the base-line of zero. But it can in fact deviate by as much as 7, according to the above example, and it is this deviation that can be hard to stomach.
Let's assume that you are betting on tails in our game of coin toss and therefore you are down by 5 tosses after the 21st game. In other words, you have lost 13 games and won only 8. At this point most people will want to inspect the coin and maybe have a turn at tossing it for a while.
Now miraculously the odds swing in your favour and you find that you're ahead by 7 tosses at the end of the 39th game. Of course your opponent is now the one beginning to question the fairness of the game. But just to make matters worse let's assume that you don't actually get to witness the game of coin toss. Both players are simply being given the results of the game, played at a remote location, by a supposedly reliable third party. Now ask yourself, if you were down 13 losses to 8 wins, whether you would drop out of the game because you believed there was a bias in the process. (And I forgot to mention that the wager on each game is $1,000.)
Unfortunately this is an all too common occurrence in the Stockmarket, particularly during tough times. So while the All Ordinaries has risen by 9% on average for the past 100 years, many individuals simply lose faith in that fact during periods such as 2002, pictured below.
A more common expression of this phenomenon is how some individuals can prove a strategy through comprehensive backtesting, only to dismiss it as a failure after trading it in realtime for as little as 10 trades. It appears they just don't have the stomach for probability. Their ability to maintain their 'Mathematical' objectivity is lost because their hip pocket nerves eventually override all other thinking by transmitting ever increasing pain signals to the brain.
It is a well accepted fact amongst professional traders that a losing streak of 8 consecutive losses is not at all uncommon. This is why the ability to sustain losses is so important, not only in terms of your trading capital but also with respect to your 'Psychological' capital. To preserve your trading capital, I recommend sticking to the 2% risk rule. To preserve your psychological capital I recommend carrying a coin at all times; you never know when you might have to play a game of coin toss and prove to yourself that a string of 8 consecutive losses is very possible.
Read more articles by Alan Hull.
Share Trading is all about having the balance of probability on your side. In fact to succeed in the marketplace we only have to tip the scale of probability ever so slightly in our favour. This is evidenced by the fact that Casinos only have a tiny edge over the players of a mere 2% at the roulette table. This seemingly insignificant advantage is then compounded over a massive number of spins to create profits of mouth watering proportions. To give you some idea of the size of these profits; most Casinos have to count their money by weighing it.
But while most of us have a clear understanding of the science of probability, not all of us have the stomach for it. To illustrate my point let's consider the simple game of coin toss where the payouts are even, making it a fair game of chance. Everyone agrees that when tossing a coin, the probable outcome is evenly split between heads and tails, ie. the chances of heads occurring is 50% and the chances of tails occurring is 50%. The results of 100 consecutive coin tosses is shown in the following chart of 'Balance of outcomes'.
Now, whilst the probable outcome of tossing a coin is an even split between heads and tails, it doesn't mean that the outcome will oscillate perfectly between heads and tails in a flip/flop head, tail, head, tail, head, tail pattern. However, it does mean that the balance of outcomes will always return to the base-line of zero. But it can in fact deviate by as much as 7, according to the above example, and it is this deviation that can be hard to stomach.
Let's assume that you are betting on tails in our game of coin toss and therefore you are down by 5 tosses after the 21st game. In other words, you have lost 13 games and won only 8. At this point most people will want to inspect the coin and maybe have a turn at tossing it for a while.
Now miraculously the odds swing in your favour and you find that you're ahead by 7 tosses at the end of the 39th game. Of course your opponent is now the one beginning to question the fairness of the game. But just to make matters worse let's assume that you don't actually get to witness the game of coin toss. Both players are simply being given the results of the game, played at a remote location, by a supposedly reliable third party. Now ask yourself, if you were down 13 losses to 8 wins, whether you would drop out of the game because you believed there was a bias in the process. (And I forgot to mention that the wager on each game is $1,000.)
Unfortunately this is an all too common occurrence in the Stockmarket, particularly during tough times. So while the All Ordinaries has risen by 9% on average for the past 100 years, many individuals simply lose faith in that fact during periods such as 2002, pictured below.
A more common expression of this phenomenon is how some individuals can prove a strategy through comprehensive backtesting, only to dismiss it as a failure after trading it in realtime for as little as 10 trades. It appears they just don't have the stomach for probability. Their ability to maintain their 'Mathematical' objectivity is lost because their hip pocket nerves eventually override all other thinking by transmitting ever increasing pain signals to the brain.
It is a well accepted fact amongst professional traders that a losing streak of 8 consecutive losses is not at all uncommon. This is why the ability to sustain losses is so important, not only in terms of your trading capital but also with respect to your 'Psychological' capital. To preserve your trading capital, I recommend sticking to the 2% risk rule. To preserve your psychological capital I recommend carrying a coin at all times; you never know when you might have to play a game of coin toss and prove to yourself that a string of 8 consecutive losses is very possible.
Read more articles by Alan Hull.
The Market has changed!
The Market has changed!
What will you do to make money Now?
With such a sudden shift in market conditions that we have had over the last few weeks, many of our new members and people we meet have been asking, what shall I do? Shall I sell the lot? If I hang on to anything, what shall I hang on to? The answer is simpler than you might think! The question is not really should I buy or sell this share, but what does my trading plan say about this particular share and if I should own it!
Traders, like businesses fail within the first five years of establishment. Our goal at the Bulls and Bears Network (BBN) is to survive and avoid becoming one of those failures. Statistics suggests 80% of traders fail and for futures trading that swells out to 90%. This is in sync with the Pareto principle based on the 80/20% rule. One of the reason traders and businesses fail is they do not have a plan. They do not have a map for their future!
Through years of research, education and experience we established that successful traders treated their trading as a business and had a trading plan. Therefore we collated all the best information in terms of writing both a business plan and a trading plan in one formatted document and called it the ‘BBN Trading Business Plan’. It has been developed as a document that will define your approach to the markets and map out a business plan that suits your individual personality.
It documents the types of trades you pursue, the approach that you take to finding trading opportunities and the way that you will manage those trades from entry to exit. The document will also clearly define your money and risk management techniques, which is probably one of the most important parts of your Trading business plan. As Christopher Tate so succinctly puts it, ‘Ignore money management and you will perish’!
The plan also covers daily, weekly and monthly routines because everything from scans to records needs to be systemised. It also covers much, much more! Attempting to run a trading business without a comprehensive ‘Trading Business Plan’ is like running any other business in Australia without a business plan, it more than likely will lead to failure. There is an old saying ‘Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail!’
Every successful trader we know has a plan and we don’t know any successful trader that doesn’t have one. Isn’t that interesting! That is why we walk you through each component of the comprehensive Traders business plan in complete detail. We go through a myriad of questions that are designed to bring out your individual roadmap to success! The Traders Business Plan is years of research of successful trading, ongoing education, coaching and mentoring with a lot of experience in the markets thrown in.
We personally suggest that if you don’t have a trading business plan, that you should stop trading immediately! Due to repeated requests from our club members we will be holding a one off session where you get to ask real traders questions in regards to the many areas covered in the trader’s business plan. You will also be emailed an electronic copy of the copyrighted document which will become the foundation of your trading.
We would like to add that BBN has been sponsors of a traders club for the past six years. This is where people can get quality education next to nothing and network with other like minded individuals and compare notes on all sought of things to do with trading and investing. We are proud of the large percentage of people in the club that have trading plans. It is the people with the trading plans that are making a real success in their trading! Here is what one of the members had to say “…..to make money in the markets you need to be educated and have a trading plan.
If you think that the time or money is expensive, try ignorance।
What will you do to make money Now?
With such a sudden shift in market conditions that we have had over the last few weeks, many of our new members and people we meet have been asking, what shall I do? Shall I sell the lot? If I hang on to anything, what shall I hang on to? The answer is simpler than you might think! The question is not really should I buy or sell this share, but what does my trading plan say about this particular share and if I should own it!
Traders, like businesses fail within the first five years of establishment. Our goal at the Bulls and Bears Network (BBN) is to survive and avoid becoming one of those failures. Statistics suggests 80% of traders fail and for futures trading that swells out to 90%. This is in sync with the Pareto principle based on the 80/20% rule. One of the reason traders and businesses fail is they do not have a plan. They do not have a map for their future!
Through years of research, education and experience we established that successful traders treated their trading as a business and had a trading plan. Therefore we collated all the best information in terms of writing both a business plan and a trading plan in one formatted document and called it the ‘BBN Trading Business Plan’. It has been developed as a document that will define your approach to the markets and map out a business plan that suits your individual personality.
It documents the types of trades you pursue, the approach that you take to finding trading opportunities and the way that you will manage those trades from entry to exit. The document will also clearly define your money and risk management techniques, which is probably one of the most important parts of your Trading business plan. As Christopher Tate so succinctly puts it, ‘Ignore money management and you will perish’!
The plan also covers daily, weekly and monthly routines because everything from scans to records needs to be systemised. It also covers much, much more! Attempting to run a trading business without a comprehensive ‘Trading Business Plan’ is like running any other business in Australia without a business plan, it more than likely will lead to failure. There is an old saying ‘Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail!’
Every successful trader we know has a plan and we don’t know any successful trader that doesn’t have one. Isn’t that interesting! That is why we walk you through each component of the comprehensive Traders business plan in complete detail. We go through a myriad of questions that are designed to bring out your individual roadmap to success! The Traders Business Plan is years of research of successful trading, ongoing education, coaching and mentoring with a lot of experience in the markets thrown in.
We personally suggest that if you don’t have a trading business plan, that you should stop trading immediately! Due to repeated requests from our club members we will be holding a one off session where you get to ask real traders questions in regards to the many areas covered in the trader’s business plan. You will also be emailed an electronic copy of the copyrighted document which will become the foundation of your trading.
We would like to add that BBN has been sponsors of a traders club for the past six years. This is where people can get quality education next to nothing and network with other like minded individuals and compare notes on all sought of things to do with trading and investing. We are proud of the large percentage of people in the club that have trading plans. It is the people with the trading plans that are making a real success in their trading! Here is what one of the members had to say “…..to make money in the markets you need to be educated and have a trading plan.
I wish I had met these guys when I started trading and filled out their tradinghttp://www.bullsandbearsnetwork.com.au/
business plan. It not only has organised me, but would have saved me many costly
mistakes…” Graham Beard. Engadine
If you think that the time or money is expensive, try ignorance।
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